Macau’s gross gaming revenue is expected to grow by around 5% quarter-on-quarter in 1Q24, despite a likely slowdown in March, according to industry analysts.
In a Friday note following publication of Macau’s February GGR results, JP Morgan’s DS Kim, Mufan Shi and Selina Li said such 5% quarterly growth would exceed historical pre-COVID seasonality which has seen revenues remain flattish, with March itself having typically come in 4% lower than January and February when it comes to run-rates.
February’s GGR of MOP$18.5 billion (US$2.29 billion) comprised a post-pandemic high run-rate of MOP$637 million (US$129 million) .
In a separate note, Carlo Santarelli of Deutsche Bank said his March forecast of US$2.42 billion represents a 2.2% decline in daily run-rate versus February but is vastly improved on the historical 7.7% decline at this time of year. The March GGR forecast also represents 74.8% of March 2019 GGR.
JP Morgan wrote, “Year-to-date GGR is tracking +7% above 4Q23, and this suggests 1Q GGR can grow +5% q/q to beat the historical seasonality of flattish q/q, if history is any guide.
“This is essentially where our numbers are, supporting our view that the Street expectations are very reasonable for the sector as a group despite macro/consumption headwinds.”
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