Macau’s gaming revenues are set to benefit from an “unprecedented line-up of events” organized by concessionaires, which will help ease the traditional post-Golden Week hangover, according to Citi.
In a Wednesday note, analysts George Choi and Ryan Cheung estimated gaming revenues to hit a near 4-year high of MOP$19 billion (US$2.36 billion) in October, including a daily average of MOP$765 million (US$95 million) per day during the National Day holiday period from 1 to 6 October.
While this is tipped to fall by around 25% to MOP$575 million (US$71 million) per day for the remainder of the month, Choi and Cheung note this would be improved from the 34% decline experienced in 2019.
“The six casino operators are putting together an unprecedented line-up of events for 4Q23, and this could provide an extra boost to gaming and non-gaming revenues,” they wrote, pointing to upcoming performances from the likes of Eason Chan, MC Cheung Tin Fu, Terence Lam and Kelly Chen.
“The National Day Golden Week alone is set to feature eight events [and] on top of that we expect the normal ‘post Golden Week hangover’ to be much less severe.
“These events prompt us to raise our 4Q23 GGR forecast from MOP$51 billion (US$6.3 billion) to MOP$52.5 billion (US$6.5 billion), implying 7.4% quarter-on-quarter growth.”
Anticipating a benchmark low in September on the impact of recent weather events including Super Typhoon Saola, the analysts have also raised their estimates for November GGR from MOP$15 billion (US$1.86 billion) to MOP$16 billion (US$1.98 billion) and for December from MOP$17 billion (US$2.11 billion) to MOP$17.5 billion (US$2.17 billion).
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