Macau’s post-COVID recovery has continued into early February, analysts say, with gross gaming revenue staying strong at an estimated MOP$380 million (US$47 million) per day from 1 to 5 February, according to investment bank JP Morgan.
In a Monday note, JP Morgan analyst DS Kim said channel checks showed GGR for the period at MOP$1.9 billion (US$234 million) – broadly in line with January’s print of MOP$374 million (US$46 million) per day and a surprisingly positive result given January was boosted by the Chinese New Year holiday.
“While the [February] period did include a bit of boost from tail-end demands post CNY (which helps high-end/VIP demand more so than mass, by the way), we believe most of the market participants, including on the buy-side, were looking for sequential pull-back on GGR,” Kim said.
“We think the print was better than expected, although the market may want to monitor the trends for a few more weeks to gain confidence.”
The February estimate represents at least a 45% recovery on pre-COVID levels, suggesting mass has maintained recovery at 65% to 70% and putting operators well into the black when it comes to free cash flow.
Kim reiterated his earlier view that this level of GGR places Macau’s recovery two or three quarters ahead of what was anticipated and is therefore “very positive fundamentally.”
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