Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) recorded a 5.9% year-on-year increase to MOP$23.81 billion in June, the second consecutive month of positive growth for Asia’s gaming hub.
The result, which also represented the largest monthly percentage point increase this year, comfortably exceeded consensus of +1.8% growth with analysts highlighting improvement in both the mass and VIP segments versus recent trends.
JP Morgan’s DS Kim estimated mass revenue grew by 18% to 20% in June, with VIP down 8% to 9% compared with the 2019 average of around 14%.
“VIP demand finally seems to be stabilizing as major junkets’ rolling volumes stayed flattish month-on-month despite weak seasonality, and year-on-year declines have narrowed sharply,” he said.
June’s numbers also brought Macau’s GGR tally for the first six months of the year to near parity with the same period in 2018, down just 0.5% year-on-year to MOP$149.50 billion.
Bernstein’s Vitaly Umansky, Eunice Lee and Kelsey Zhu say the positive momentum should continue in June as year-on-year comparisons continue to ease, adding “we may see surprise on the upside if VIP rebounds.
“One area of potential high end GGR stabilization and renewed strength may come from a recovering credit cycle in China which may support VIP recovery in 2H. Weaker than expected macro data for June, along with the continued tensions in US-China trade relations however, casts uncertainty over the GGR recovery.”
Early estimates have July GGR growing by between 2% and 4%.
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