Inside Asian Gaming

IAG APR 2023年4月 亞博匯 12 MACAU OPERATORS TO EXCEED PRE-COVID PROFIT LEVELS BY 2025 至2025年澳門營運商的 利潤有望超過疫前水平 MACAU’S CASINO INDUSTRY is poised to equal pre- COVID EBITDA numbers by 2024, and exceed them in 2025, thanks to better gaming mix and lower operating costs, according to JP Morgan. In a note which saw the investment bank update its Macau models to reflect 4Q22 and FY22 earnings results, analysts DS Kim and Mufan Shi highlighted the improved profit profile of the SAR’s gaming industry following the collapse of junkets and lingering after-effects of COVID. In particular they point to considerable OPEX savings, with current OPEX estimated to be running at 70% to 75% of 2019 levels – likely rising to between 85% and 90% as operations ramp back up. While “10%+ savings here may not seem huge on the surface, this is actually very meaningful on a same-store basis if we consider the industry’s capacity [will be] 20%+ higher in 2024 versus 2019 based on number of casino hotel rooms,” the analysts write. “This gives us confidence to forecast EBITDA to recover to about 100% [of 2019 levels] in 2024 and 110% in 2025, without any profit contribution from VIP. This puts us well ahead of consensus by 10%+, but we feel the risk to our numbers is actually on the upside given a possibility of direct VIP recovery and what we view as under-appreciated potential in non-gaming.” JP Morgan also updated its models for Macau-wide GGR, which is estimated to reach 50% of pre-COVID levels this year and climb to 75% in 2025. The improvement is driven by mass GGR, which is tipped to reach 90% of 2019 levels by 4Q23, however the analysts note that GGR alone is no longer seen as the key metric in analyzing Macau’s numbers “given vastly different product mix and profit profile.” 摩根大通表示 ，由於有着更好的博彩組合和較低的運營成本，澳 門博彩業有望在2024年錄得EBITDA與疫前持平，並於2025年超 過這一數字。 分析師DS Kim和Mufan Shi在一份行業報告中指出，該投資 銀行更新了其澳門模型以反映2022財年第四季度和2022財年的 盈利結果。他們強調了在博彩中介行業潰散和新冠疫情後續影響 去除之後，澳門博彩業的盈利狀況有所改善。 他們尤其指出了可觀的營運支出節省，目前的運營支出估計 為2019年水平的七成至七成五，隨著營運的回升，這一比例可能 上升至85%至90%。 分析師寫道：「儘管節省一成以上的成本表面上看起來似乎 並不算多，但如果考慮到2024年基於賭場酒店房間的行業運力 將比2019年高出兩成以上。從同店的角度來看，這實際上是非常 有意義的。」 「這讓我們有信心預測，在貴賓博彩沒有任何利潤貢獻的情 況下，2024年的EBITDA將恢復至2019年的全部水平，至2025 年恢復至110%，遠超我們早前普遍認為的10%以上。但我們認 為，考慮到直營貴賓博彩復甦的可能性，以及尚未被充分重視的 非博彩潛力，我們的數據實際上面臨上行風險。」 摩根大通還同時更新了澳門博彩收入的模型，預計今年的 GGR將達到疫前水平的五成，至2025年達到75%。這一改善主 要由於中場博彩收入的推動。預計到2023年第四季度，博彩總 收入有望達到2019年水平的成就。但分析師就指出，有鑒於「產 品組合及利潤狀況存在巨大差異」，單獨的博彩總收入數字不應 被視為分析澳門數字的關鍵指標。