Inside Asian Gaming

IAG SEP 2020年9月 亞博匯 60 COLUMNISTS from the collapse or impairment of supply chains, the enforced prolonged closure of retail outlets, the disruption of work practices, the displacement of workforces due to depression-level unemployment, the inevitable tapering of government fiscal stimulus packages and the negative sentiment and fear affecting customers who have become conditioned to buying online. For the government to proceed with a tender after expiry of the current concessions in June 2022 is to invite a sub-optimal outcome. The Chief Executive has a viable option, which is to unilaterally extend the term of the existing concessions, using the discretion vested in him by Article 13,3 of Law 16/2001. There can be no doubt COVID-19 presents the required “exceptional condition” which is required to trigger the exercise of the discretion. Extending the concessions by five years, the allowablemaximum, wouldprovide theconcessionaires an opportunity to recalibrate and recover. It would also allow potential new entrants additional time to track the post-COVID performance of the industry in Macau. It is by no means clear that running a 2022 tender will allow a post-COVID recovery of either gaming or non- gaming revenue. An advantage of a deferral of the upcoming tender is that it would allow the government additional time to process the results of its delayed public consultation, as well as to consider possible regulatory improvements and efficiencies which would provide greater certainty, and less compliance cost to operators. A further and distinctly material advantage is that the government could offer concession terms extending through to December 2049, when the SAR and its Basic Law will effectively expire. Suppose the existing concessions were extended until 2027; that would leave a further 22 years post-award and execution of new concession contracts, a term only two years longer than the existing term of each concession. Should the tender proceed in 2022, the temptation might be to shorten the term, say to 15 years, and leave it to a succeeding administration to make what it could from a final 12-year concession term. Certainty commands a premium – hence a longer final term is 控制著博彩業未來走向的，已經不是政府或營運商。隨著新冠大 流行衝擊環球經濟的時間越長，事情就越難在新冠病毒被消滅或 社區感染被杜絕後迅速回復從前的景況。 在歐洲、新加坡、日本及澳洲的所謂第二波疫情，都顯示出曠 日持久的U形或W形復甦是更有可能出現的結果。 但無論如何，似乎越來越多經濟學家認為，私人市場要從崩 潰或受損的供應鏈、零售商舖的強制長期關閉、工作程序受到的 擾亂、由大蕭條式失業情況引發的人力流動、無可避免地逐漸變 小的政府財政刺激方案，以及負面情緒和恐慌導致顧客變得只會 在網上購物等情況中恢復，可能會耗時多年，甚至幾十年。 如果政府依然要在現時專營權於2022年6月屆滿後進行重新 競投的話，將會招致一個不甚圓滿的結果。行政長官其實有一個 可行的選擇，就是根據16/2001法律第13條第3款賦予他的權力， 延長現時專營權的期限。毫無疑問，新冠疫情造就了行使這權力的 「例外情況」。 如果把現時的專營權延長法例許可的最多五年的話，將會讓 承批人有機會作自我校正及恢復，同時亦容許潛在的新競投者有 更多時間去追蹤澳門博彩業在後疫情時代的表現。現時亦無人知 曉到底在2022年進行重新競投的話，博彩及非博彩收入上會否出 現一個後疫情復甦情況。 同時，推遲下次競投的一個好處，就是讓政府可以有更多時 間去處理延後了的公眾諮詢的結果，並且可以考慮改善監管及效 率，這也會為營運商帶來更大的確定性及更低的法規遵循成本。 另一個更突出的好處，就是政府可以把專營權延續到2049年