48 M acau casino revenues are growing at a phenomenal rate, reaching US$6.9 billion last year. Macau now has 26 casinos—more than twice the number in 2003. Baccarat accounted for 86% of gross gaming revenue in 2006,while slot play made up less than 4%. By contrast, in Las Vegas, slots ac- count for around 70% of total revenue. Macau is a tiny city, with a land area of less than 30 sq km and a population of just over 500,000.Last year, Macau welcomed 22 million visitors, around 93% of whom are Chinese—54.5% from mainland China, 31.6% from Hong Kong and 6.5% from Tai- wan. Although there are over 20 different games on offer in Macau’s casinos, the gaming market is dominated by Chinese people playing baccarat. I conducted an observational study and a num- ber of in-depth interviews in order to gain an un- derstanding of the behaviour of these Chinese bac- carat players and to prepare for a more extensive future study. One of my notable discoveries was that Chinese players have a high illusion of control during their baccarat play. For example, most Chinese baccarat players slowly peel back their cards one at a time to reveal the results.These actions are often accompanied by some form of supportive vocal utterance from the card holders and those betting on the same side. The Chinese gam- blers appear to be performing these rituals in the hopes of drawing winning cards. This sort of behaviour is similar to that demonstrat- ed by Chinese when they play mahjong, a popular social activity among Chinese worldwide. The peeling back of baccarat cards is reminiscent of Chinese mahjong players feeling their mahjong tiles before reading and/or revealing them. When a winning combina- tion is formed, players often make loud vocal proclamations—usu- ally ‘pung’ or ‘kong.’ Defying the odds Many Chinese players sincerely believe they can beat the house with their skill and wits, even though they usually also understand the odds of casino games are weighted in favour of the house. Such be- liefs are depicted in and propagated by Chinese gambling-themed movies like “God of Gamblers” (1989),“The Conmen in Vegas” (1999), and“Kung Fu Mahjong” (2005). There are over 50 Chinese gambling-themed movies. There are also a number of books sold in Macau that claim to teach players strategies to improve their odds of winning at baccarat. Furthermore, research has shown that Chinese generally use intuition extensively during decision making and show a lack of concern for uncertainty. These characteristics could lead to a stronger belief that their gam- bling ‘skills’ can help them beat the odds when playing baccarat. The Illusion of Control Chinese are reputed to be among the most hardcore gamblers in the world, and part of the reason for their fervent play could be their irrational belief that they can control the outcome of casino games through skill and luck, explains Desmond Lam Additionally, there is a general belief among Chinese in fate, luck, feng shui and karma. Again, these superstitious beliefs are often depicted in Chinese gambling-themed movies such as “All for the Winners” (1990) and “Feng Shui & Gambling” (2001). I recently came across a Chinese book, pub- lished in late 2006, which teaches readers how to defy the feng shui of all the major casinos in Macau. It details—depending on a person’s Chinese zodi- ac sign—the day and time one should enter a par- ticular casino in Macau in order to win, the types of gems one should bring along when he/she enters a casino, the colour of clothes to wear, and how to enter the casino (e.g. avoiding the red lantern at the entrance or going through a side entrance of a casino). It also reveals how players can increase their luck prior to a visit to any casino. Methods in- clude bathing in flowers and other special rituals. Avoid the black face During my visit to a casino last year, I witnessed three Chinese gam- blers attempting to predict the outcome of their baccarat games us- ing Chinese wealth coins. On my visits to casinos in Macau, I constant- ly overhear references to luck and feng shui. Phrases like “my luck is coming”,“today is not my lucky day”,‘today is so dark”,“avoid that deal- er, he has a black face”,“don’t walk under the red lantern”,“don’t look at the sculpture”,“don’t step on this side of the floor”, etc. Superstitious beliefs about certain numbers are also character- istic of Chinese gamblers and contribute to their illusion of control. There is a deliberate avoidance of“bad”numbers such as 4 (the sound of which,in Chinese,closely resembles the sound of the word“death”), 14 and 24, and favouring of “lucky” number such as 3 and 8 (which sounds like “prosperous”). The way one combines the numbers is also important. A bad number can be combined to become a good number. For example, number 4 can be combined with 8 to become 48—considered a pretty good number. The belief in gambling skills, luck, feng shui and other supernatu- ral forces all contribute to the high illusion of control among Chinese gamblers. By understanding these beliefs, casino managers, market- ers and game designers can devise ways to encourage Chinese gam- blers to play more. Assuming the house edge is not affected by the players’ skill or luck, this would ultimately result in more profit for the casinos. Desmond Lam is an assistant professor of marketing at the University of Macau. His expertise lies in the psychology of Chinese gamblers, word- of-mouth communication, and customer loyalty. He can be contacted at
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