China is likely to maintain its “zero-COVID” policy until after the National People’s Congress in November 2022, and possibly beyond, according to a research report by investment bank Jefferies.
While many believe China has been waiting until after the upcoming Winter Olympics, scheduled to run from 4 to 20 February in Beijing, to reassess its COVID goals, Jefferies analysts Simon Powell, Katherine Zheng and Christopher Lui have suggested the wait will be longer, ensuring President Xi Jinping is reappointed to a historic third term without any outside distractions. There is also, they state, “a risk that [China’s zero-COVID policy] could continue into 2023 and possibly beyond.”
In a separate note on Monday, Jefferies’ Andrew Lee said he expects China will take its first steps towards reopening by allowing quarantine-free travel within the Greater Bay Area only but said even a slight uptick in visitation from the mainland on eased border policies would be good news for Macau.
“We estimate 10% more Chinese visitors would increase our 2022 GGR and EBITDA by 6.9% and 8.4%,” Lee said.
“There is no debating Macau will benefit from China’s GBA focus,” he added, although “new travel relaxing catalysts are required as China-Macau travel has been relatively unrestricted but [the] sector only [marginally] EBITDA positive.”
Potential catalysts will be the reinstatement of electronic IVS (Individual Visit Scheme) processing, group tours and the reopening of the border with Hong Kong.
Meanwhile, “We factor slower rebound and estimate 2022 and 2023 GGR at only 41% and 59% of 2019 pre-pandemic levels with VIP declining to only 14% of total GGR by 2023,” Lee said.
