Macau is on track to report a year-on-year GGR increase of between 17% and 19% in May, say analysts, after rebounding strongly from the Labor Day holiday weekend.
According to JP Morgan’s DS Kim, mass market is leading the way with growth of more than 20% year-on-year while VIP GGR is tracking in the low-teens on the back of poor luck.
In a note seen by IAG, Kim estimates GGR of MOP$17.3 billion, or MOP$865 million per day, through the first 20 days of May.
“More importantly, this implies last week’s GGR jumped over 25% week-on-week to MOP$940 million per day from a softer-than-expected post-holiday lull,” Kim said. The current rate is 17% to 18% higher than in May 2017.”
Brokerage Bernstein offered a similar prediction of 16% to 17% year-on-year growth earlier this week, stating that an average daily rate of MOP$942 million last week “increased significantly week-on-week after the seasonal slowdown post the Labor Day holiday, 36% above similar week last year.”
“Month-to-date VIP hold rate was slightly below normal range,” Bernstein analysts said. “Mass was up by low single digits month-on-month compared with April ADR number, while VIP volume was up low-mid single digit.
“It seems that the crackdown of the Gongbei border gate exchange stores didn’t hurt last week’s GGR.”
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