Macquarie analysts estimate that around US$1.7 billion will be wagered legally on next week’s Super Bowl LIX, representing an 11% increase over last year’s event.
The increase comes with around 160 million US adults now having access to legal betting avenues, 6% more than at this time last year. Around 11% of those adults are expected to wager an average of US$100, according to Chad Beynon, Macquarie’s senior Gaming, Lodging & Theatres analyst.
Super Bowl LIX will see two-time defending champions Kansas City Chiefs take on the Philadelphia Eagles, with the best result for bookies based on current trends being a Chiefs win and Under 48.5 total. This, Beynon says, could see a 22% hold rate, driving US$365 million of market GGR and US$255 million of NGR. An Eagles win and Over total would see a -4% hold rate.
“As it stands today, 83% of the public bettors are wagering that the total goes Over 48.5, which represents the largest liability for sportsbooks, followed by the money line (+1.5) on Philadelphia,” Macquarie states. “We think books will look to reduce their liability with most betting occurring closer to Sunday’s kick-off.”
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