After a subdued start to the year in January, when gross gaming revenues fell by 5.6% year-on-year to MOP$18.25 billion (US$2.27 billion), analysts are keeping a close eye on the current Chinese New Year Golden Week holiday to determine whether Macau’s gaming operators can turn it all around in February.
In a series of notes issued shortly after publication of Macau’s January GGR results on Saturday, analyst forecasts for the month of February differed significantly, from as low as MOP$19 billion (US$2.34 billion) or 3.5% year-on-year growth to as high as MOP$2.6 billion (US$3.2 billion) or 11.4% year-on-year growth.
On the more conservative side is JP Morgan, which suggested the jury is still out on whether January’s miss was a temporary blip or indicative of a lasting trend. While recent days had seen a surge in visitor arrivals into Macau, “All eyes are on the LNY print from industry consultants, expected on 10 February,” said analysts DS Kim, Mufan Shi and Selina Li.
“We believe the bogey for the print is set at around MOP$800 million to MOP$850 million (US$98.3 million to US$104.5 million) per day for 1 to 9 February, as this implies a run-rate of over MOP$1 billion (US$122.9 million) per day during peak holidays.”
JP Morgan is expecting January and February GGR combined to finish flattish year-on-year before gradually improving later in the year to allow for FY25 GGR growth of around 5% on easier comps.
Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli has also revised down his forecast for January and February although remains more bullish than some others.
“We [previously] projected 3.9% year-on-year growth for the combined January/February period, which compared to the Consensus forecast … of +6% for the combined period,” Santarelli said. “To achieve the +3.9% aggregate implied growth, February would have to grow ~13.8% year-on-year, despite having one fewer calendar day. As such, our current forecast for January/February stands at +2.7% year-on-year.”
Analysts have broadly noted that the January GGR figure was heavily impacted by the timing of Chinese New Year in 2025, which saw a very notable pre-holiday lull in Macau that, particularly affecting large properties according to JP Morgan.
CNY had fallen around two weeks later in mid-February in 2024.
