Seaport Research Partners has revised upwards its Macau GGR estimates for May, buoyed by a stronger than expected start to the month during the five-day Golden Week holiday.
In a note, Seaport analyst Vitaly Umansky said estimated Golden Week revenue of MOP$900 million to MOP$910 million (US$112 million to US$113 million) was 10% to 15% higher than his earlier prediction, and while revenue for the remainder of the month should drop off to around MOP$595 million (US$74 million) per day, this would still result in a revised May GGR figure.
Seaport is now estimating GGR of MOP$20 billion (US$2.5 billion) in May, up 3.5% over the prior prediction and therefore potentially the highest monthly GGR figure since reopening in January 2023.
The MOP$20 billion figure, described by Umansky as a “reasonable” expectation, would represent an 8% improvement over April and reach 77% of May 2019 levels.
He also noted that the trend of recent weeks has been overwhelmingly positive. Firstly, GGR accelerated “after what was viewed to be a slightly sluggish start to the month, but ending very strongly heading into the May holiday, with the last week of the month generating over MOP$670 million (US$83 million), 13% above the first three weeks of April.”
Secondly, the impressive Golden Week result came despite treacherous weather conditions which almost certainly impacted visitation, particularly on Saturday and Sunday
“Without weather impacting travel on Saturday and Sunday, the 5-day Golden Week period could have been even better,” Umansky said.
“If the remainder of the month sees daily GGR on par with March/April, GGR for the month of May could rise to ~MOP$20.75 billion, 80% of May 2019.”
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