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China’s third-quarter GDP grows 4.8% year-on-year

Pierce Chan by Pierce Chan
Mon 20 Oct 2025 at 14:30
Fitch upgrades China’s 2023 economic growth forecast to 5.2%
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China’s third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) grew 4.8% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of 4.7% but marking a 0.4 percentage point slowdown from the previous quarter.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday morning, the “three carriages” (consumption, industrial output value and fixed-asset investment) primarily reflecting mainland China’s economic performance showed that total retail sales of consumer goods reached RMB 4.2 trillion (US$590 billion) in September, rising 3% year-on-year and exceeding the anticipated 2.9% growth. However, month-on-month, it fell by 0.18%, marking the largest decline in three months.

From January to September, total retail sales of consumer goods reached RMB 36.6 trillion (US$5.14 trillion) in, marking a 4.5% year-on-year increase.

Industrial output value for enterprises above designated size grew by 6.5% year-on-year in September, up 1.3 percentage points from August and reaching a three-month high. For the first three quarters, industrial output value for enterprises above designated size increased by 6.2% year-on-year.

Regarding national fixed-asset investment, the first three quarters totaled RMB 37.2 trillion (US$5.22 trillion) in, a 0.5% year-on-year decrease. The National Bureau of Statistics indicated that the slowdown in investment growth was primarily influenced by property development investment.

GDP for the first three quarters reached RMB 101.5 trillion (US$14.2 trillion) in, representing a 5.2% annual increase. By industry classification, the added value of the primary sector was RMB 5.8 trillion (US$814 billion) in, up 3.8% year-on-year; the secondary sector’s added value was RMB 36.4 trillion (US$5.11 trillion) in, up 4.9%; and the tertiary sector’s added value was RMB 59.3 trillion (US$8.32 trillion) in, up 5.4%.

Regarding the slowdown in third-quarter GDP growth, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics stated that it was primarily caused by major factors such as a complex external environment and domestic structural adjustments.

However, the spokesperson emphasized that despite the moderation in growth, China’s economy continues to maintain a stable and progressive development trajectory. Regarding the growth level, “China’s 4.8% economic growth rate in the third quarter remains significantly higher than that of most major economies, which is particularly commendable for an economy of our scale,” they said.

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Pierce Chan

Pierce Chan

With more than five years’ experience working as a journalist in Macau, Pierce is an experienced media operator with strong skills in news writing and editing. He previously worked with Exmoo, first as a reporter covering government, gaming and tourism-related stories, then as a Deputy Assignment Editor helping set the agenda of the day. Pierce is a graduate of the University of Macau.

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