The four days following Macau’s eight-day Golden Week appear to have been strong, allaying fears the softer holiday period could become endemic according to Seaport Research Partners.
In a Tuesday note, Seaport’s Vitaly Umansky said that while Golden Week visitation was up 16% year-on-year during Golden Week, average daily visitation was up only 2% while average daily GGR fell 11% to MOP$910 million (US$114 million) versus Golden Week 2024.
Likewise, although visitation was robust with a daily average of 143,000 visitors arriving during the holiday, spend per visitor declined to US$793 per visitor – down 12% year-on-year although 34% higher than Chinese New Year and 18% higher than May Golden Week.
However, “the four days following Golden Week appear to have been strong due to a 3-day concert by Hong Kong-star Jackson Wang at Galaxy Macau and the NBA weekend at The Venetian,” Umansky wrote. “We estimate daily GGR was over MOP$730 million (US$91.3 million).
“For the 1 to 12 October period, we estimate GGR was MOP$10.2 billion (US$1.28 billion) at over MOP$850 million (US$106 million) per day.”
Umansky also said he expects the post-Golden Week period to continue showing some strength as some high-end players who postponed their Macau trip in Golden Week will return.
“This should lead to stronger play over the remaining two-and-a-half weeks,” the analyst explained.
“While the first two weeks were soft with an ADR of MOP$850 million, we estimate that the remainder of the month could see an ADR in the range of MOP$665 million (US$83.1 million).
“We revise our October estimate to +10% year-on-year due to softer Golden Week, assuming an average MOP$665 million per day for the rest of October.
“October GGR could come in at MOP$22.86 billion (US$2.85 billion) – the strongest month of 2025 and the strongest since November 2019. We also forecast double-digit growth in November and December and into early next year.”
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