Macau’s gross gaming revenue generation should maintain its recent strength in the coming months, including a forecast 13% year-on-year increase in September, according to industry analysts.
Following confirmation on Monday that August GGR had again set a new post-pandemic record at MOP$22.2 billion (US$2.76 billion), Deutsche Bank’s Steven Pizzella said he expects September gaming revenues to grow by 13.6% over the same month in 2024 to US$2.45 billion, albeit representing an 11.2% decline compared with August.
It could be stronger than that, however, given that September has historically declined at a slower rate. Pizzella noted that average win per day in September, relative to August, has in the past averaged a 5.5% decline and if this rate was mirrored in 2025, September GGR would grow by 17.5% year-on-year to around MOP$20.3 billion (US$2.52 billion).
In a separate note, Seaport Research Partners analyst Vitaly Umansky outlined expectations for 13% year-on-year growth, down 12% month-on-month, in September but warned the forecast could be negatively impacted should adverse weather events strike Macau like they did last year, when two typhoons struck the SAR during the month.
Nevertheless, GGR growth for the second half of 2025 remains om track for 13.5% growth compared with the same period in 2024 – up from 4.4% growth during the first six months of the year.
All eyes, Umansky added, remain fixated on the base mass market which is still lagging the premium mass segment.
“While Macau’s premium segment has been strong following recovery from COVID that began in early 2023, the base mass segment (especially the overnight base mass casino customer) has remained weak, although there are some indications that mid-tier play is improving along with the higher end during the summer months,” he wrote.
“Overall year-to-date GGR is 82% of same period 2019, while mass GGR is at ~119% of 2019 and VIP sits at ~21%. Within mass, premium is ~50% above 2019, while base mass continues to lag, ~10% below 2019.”
JP Morgan analysts stated in a Monday note that Macau is now clearly in the midst of a classic “upcycle” trajectory, buoyed by positive wealth effects such as regional market rallies and crypto pricing, plus abundant liquidity in Hong Kong.
“We expect strong momentum to continue for some time,” the investment bank said.
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