Thailand’s tourism sector is said to have hit rock bottom, with a drastic fall in short-haul visitors – particularly those from China – having severely impacted the industry according to a note from Maybank Securities.
At a time when the Thai government is pushing the development of Entertainment Complexes with casino gaming as a means of boosting the country’s global tourism appeal, Maybank’s Boonyakorn Amornsank said sentiment had been negatively impacted by the earthquake in March as well as the recent abduction in Thailand of Chinese actor Wang Xing.
As a result, airlines have dramatically reduced capacity on China-Thailand routes in a trend tipped to continue into Q3, albeit at a slower rate. Maybank anticipates seat capacity ion 3Q25 to be 13% lower year-on-year versus the 18% decline seen in Q2.
Although Maybank said the earnings of all tourism-related companies under its coverage are likely to decline year-on-year in 2Q25 – reflecting recent falls in hotel room occupancy and RevPAR – the bank sees scope for improvement as the year progresses.
“We expect government stimulus in 3Q25 to help limit earnings downside for the sector [and] we maintain a positive view on the tourism sector,” Boonyakorn wrote.
Noting that the Thai government will welcome 500 Chinese travel agents and media members to a trade forum in Thailand on 29 May to help revive tourism to the country in the second half of the year, the analyst added, “The campaign will be complemented by other stimulus, such as subsidies for online travel agents and chartered flights from China’s second-tier cities.
“In July 2025, the Tourism authority of Thailand also expects to relaunch a subsidy for accommodation fees for domestic travelers. This should help boost average occupancy rate during the low season in 3Q to above 70%.”
A recent study by Citigroup found that a legalized casino industry in Thailand could make it the third largest gaming market in the world and bigger than Singapore.
“We estimate Thailand’s gross gaming revenue could reach US$9.1 billion when fully ramped, with the assumption that two licenses will be awarded to Bangkok and one each to Pattaya, Phuket and Chiang Mai,” Citi analysts said late last year.
“This will rank Thailand ahead of Singapore and only behind Macau and Las Vegas [at current GGR levels].”
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