Macau’s gross gaming revenue is estimated to have reached MOP$621 million (US$77.5 million) per day over the past week, largely stable against the estimated MOP$631 million (US$78.8 million) average for the first 16 days of March according to investment bank JP Morgan. Total GGR for the first 16 days is MOP$10.1 billion (US$1.26 billion) based on estimates with mass GGR at around 110% of pre-COVID levels while VIP remains in the low-20% range.
JP Morgan analysts DS Kim, Selina Li and Mufan Shi said they continue to model March GGR to stay flattish year-on-year at around MOP$19 billion (US$2.37 billion), suggesting 1Q25 GGR will also be flat despite relatively touch comps.
“We expect GGR growth to accelerate into the latter half of the year on easier comps (+5% to 6% year-on-year in 2H25) resulting in a modest +3% growth for FY25,” they wrote in a Monday note.
The current run-rate is not enough to change investor sentiment on Macau gaming stocks, which remains “apathetic”, the analysts said, although the sector is seen becoming cheap enough for long-term investors to start accumulating given stable demand momentum.
Galaxy Entertainment Group is seen as a solid pick due to its growth runway from new openings, solid balance sheet and Thailand opportunity, while MGM China is viewed as an “absolute value pick”.
