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JP Morgan estimates Macau GGR at US$1.26 billion at mid-point of March

Ben Blaschke by Ben Blaschke
Tue 18 Mar 2025 at 04:26
Macau GGR down 12.7% month-on-month to MOP$17.3 billion in September, lowest of the year
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Macau’s gross gaming revenue is estimated to have reached MOP$621 million (US$77.5 million) per day over the past week, largely stable against the estimated MOP$631 million (US$78.8 million) average for the first 16 days of March according to investment bank JP Morgan. Total GGR for the first 16 days is MOP$10.1 billion (US$1.26 billion) based on estimates with mass GGR at around 110% of pre-COVID levels while VIP remains in the low-20% range.

JP Morgan analysts DS Kim, Selina Li and Mufan Shi said they continue to model March GGR to stay flattish year-on-year at around MOP$19 billion (US$2.37 billion), suggesting 1Q25 GGR will also be flat despite relatively touch comps.

“We expect GGR growth to accelerate into the latter half of the year on easier comps (+5% to 6% year-on-year in 2H25) resulting in a modest +3% growth for FY25,” they wrote in a Monday note.

The current run-rate is not enough to change investor sentiment on Macau gaming stocks, which remains “apathetic”, the analysts said, although the sector is seen becoming cheap enough for long-term investors to start accumulating given stable demand momentum.

Galaxy Entertainment Group is seen as a solid pick due to its growth runway from new openings, solid balance sheet and Thailand opportunity, while MGM China is viewed as an “absolute value pick”.

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Ben Blaschke

Ben Blaschke

A former sports journalist in Sydney, Australia, Ben has been Managing Editor of Inside Asian Gaming since early 2016. He played a leading role in developing and launching IAG Breakfast Briefing in April 2017 and oversees as well as being a key contributor to all of IAG’s editorial pursuits.

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