Investment bank Jefferies has lowered its Macau GGR forecast for 2025 by 2% to MOP$240 billion (US$30 billion), bringing it back in line with previous government forecasts following a more subdued January and February than had been expected.
The revised figure represents 5.8% year-on-year industry growth, which would also mean gaming revenues rising by 6.9% from March until December.
Jefferies analysts said in a note that their revised 2025 GGR forecast remains 2% higher than market consensus as they expect mass revenues to grow by 6.9% versus market estimates of 4.8%.
“We expect the newly announced multi-entry visa for Zhuhai residents effective in Jan 2025 together with the ‘Group-in-Group-out’ multi-entry visa effective in May 2024 to continue to help boost visitations to Macau and mass gaming revenue,” they wrote.
Sands China and Galaxy are seen gaining market share in 2025 and 2026, with MGM and Wynn stabilizing.
“With the number of visitors in 2025 returning to 94% of 2019’s level, it should bode well for operators with large hotel capacity like Sands China and Galaxy,” Jefferies said, adding that it rates most concessionaires as a “Buy” but SJM as “Hold” because the company “needs more time to beef up its property margin at GLP plus uncertainty in satellite casinos’ outlook.”
Jefferies estimates further GGR growth of 5.4% to MOP$253 billion (US$31.6 billion) in 2026 and has for the first time introduced its 2027 forecast of another 5.1% increase to MOP$266 billion (US$33.2 billion).
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