Macau’s gross gaming revenue is believed to have reached MOP$7.4 billion (US$922 million), or MOP$822 million (US$102 million) per day, through the first nine days of February, with “solid tail-end” demand following the recent eight-day CNY Golden Week holiday helping soften the blow from a soft Chinese New Year itself.
According to channel checks by investment bank JP Morgan, the days following Golden Week – which ran from 28 January to 4 February – have been “better than feared” at MOP$725 million (US$90 million) per day, “somewhat offsetting the weakness from LNY. Net-net, the month-to-date run-rate remains within expectations, albeit being on the lower-end.”
In a Monday note, JP Morgan analysts presented a fairly wide range in which they expect February GGR to land, from a low of MOP$18.3 billion (US$2.28 billion) or 1% lower year-on-year to a high of MOP$19.4 billion (US$2.42 billion) or 5% higher year-on-year. Likewise, January and February combined could finish 2% lower or 2% higher year-on-year depending on how the remainder of the month plays out.
“This implies full-year GGR may only grow at low single digits by around +1% to +4% year-on-year for FY25E, which is lower than the sell-side consensus,” the investment bank said.
“We do think the buy-side expectations have already moved down to flattish growth for FY25E recently, but likely negative Street revisions could continue to weigh on valuations until we see a stabilization/inflection.”
Industry analysts have broadly been lowering their Macau FY25 GGR forecasts in the wake of CNY, with Seaport Research Partners last week estimating that Golden Week GGR across the eight-day holiday period came in at around MOP$6.24 billion (US$778 million) at a daily average of MOP$780 million (US$97.2 million), down 1% year-on-year and 8% lower than CNY in 2019.
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