The Philippines is positioned to return to pre-pandemic levels by welcoming 8 million tourist arrivals in 2025, aided by ongoing enhancements to the capacity and efficient of Manila’s Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA), according to Maybank Securities.
The positive forecast, issued Thursday, comes after business conglomerate New NAIA Infra Corp (NNIC) was in September awarded a 15-year contract to operate NAIA while investing Php170.6 billion (US$3.06 billion) into upgrading the airport’s facilities. By the time those upgrades are complete, the airport’s annual capacity is expected to grow from 35 million currently to around 62 million.
In a note, Maybank’s Ronalyn Joyce Lalimo points out that the privatization addresses long-standing issues around flight delays, poor internet connectivity and safety concerns which have hindered the country’s tourism potential.
Despite this, NAIA recorded record-high passenger numbers and flight volumes in 2024 – a year in which Philippines tourism arrivals of 5.95 million visitors fell well short of the government’s 7.7 million target.
According to Lalimo, there should be no such shortfall in 2025.
“In 2024, the Philippines welcomed 5.95m visitors, with expectations for continued growth this year,” the analyst said. “NAIA captured the highest share of arrivals (67%) and set an all-time record with 50 million passengers and 293,000 flights.
“Although NAIA improvements began in 4Q24, its record performance signals potential upside, positioning it to reach pre-pandemic levels of 8 million tourist arrivals in FY25.
“We anticipate tourism’s share of GDP to keep growing, with the industry contributing 21% to HFCE, underscoring its key role in domestic consumption growth.”
Lalimo noted that planned upgrades in 2024 include facility maintenance, traffic management, a new lounge and faster public WiFi “which is expected to enhance air connectivity, boost tourism and drive economic growth. Hence, we maintain a POSITIVE outlook for tourism.”
The upgrade plan from NNIC – a conglomerate that includes South Korea’s Incheon International Airport Corporation and local San Miguel Corporation – will within three years include runway improvements, increased terminal capacity, improved commercial spaces, better traffic flow and direct link from NAIA Terminal 3 to the Manila’s Skyway system.
Longer-term improvements are to include a new terminal building capable of accommodating an additional 35 million passengers annually, flood mitigation in surrounding areas and linkage to the Metro Manila Subway.
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