Macau’s operators generated gaming revenue of MOP$12.1 billion (US$1.51 billion) through the first 19 days of January, with demand described as “solid” in the lead-up to Chinese New Year, according to investment bank JP Morgan.
In a Monday note, analysts DS Kim, Mufan Shi and Selina Li said the daily run rate of MOP$614 million (US$76.5 million) per day suggested January GGR may fall by only 3% to 4% year-on-year – narrower than previously forecast – despite seasonal weakness heading into the CNY holiday.
GGR was, they added, “tracking better than our initial expectations of over 5% pull-back. We now forecast January/February combined GGR to be flat to +2%, implying +2% to +4% growth in daily run-rates year-on-year.”
On the upcoming CNY Golden Week holiday period itself, JP Morgan said near-full hotel bookings and robust demand will likely generate record CBY print for mass GGR and visitations.
Nevertheless, investor sentiment is unlikely to shift given similarly strong trends last year.
“We expect Chinese New Year GGR to grow moderately at low-to-mid-single digits year-on-year,” the analysts wrote, noting that comps will be tough through May.
“[This] is why we model industry GGR growth of +4% year-on-year for 1H25 versus +7% in 2H25 to produce +5% in FY25.”
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