Macau GGR of MOP$18.4 billion (US$2.30 billion) in November slightly missed market consensus, but analysts are confident of an improved December showing even with some headwinds on the horizon.
In a note following publication by Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) of the November results, Seaport’s Vitaly Umansky pointed out that the month had finished relatively strongly after a slow start, and that while average daily GGR of MOP$615 million (US$77 million) was at the lower end of monthly GGR this year, November is typically a weak month in Macau.
December, he forecast, should see GGR rise by around 5.2% year-on-year and 5.9% month-on-month to around MOP$19.5 billion (US$2.43 billion) – albeit weaker than it should be due to the expected visit of China’s President Xi Jinping to coincide with the inauguration of incoming Macau CEO Sam Hou Fai on 20 December. Visitation from mainland China to Macau is typically soft during such presidential events.
Umansky’s December forecast is higher than that of Deutsche Bank, where Carlo Santarelli is predicting a smaller 3.0% year-on-year increase in GGR to around US$2.39 billion.
“Our December forecast represents a monthly sequential per day improvement of 0.4%, which, we note, compares to the 0.7% average sequential per day improvement in December, relative to November, over the period from 2013 through 2019,” Santarelli wrote.
The current fourth quarter, he added, is tracking 10.4% higher year-on-year or at 79.5% of 2019 levels.
Umansky has 4Q24 revenues coming in at MOP$58.76 billion (US$7.35 billion), up 8.6% year-on-year and 5.7% quarter-on-quarter.
This year-on-year increase, he observed, is “weaker than the +13.9% year-on-year in 3Q24 as year-over-year comparisons are becoming more difficult. However, we still see continued growth in the industry through all of next year.”
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