Citigroup has trimmed its estimates for Macau’s September gross gaming revenues from MOP$18.25 billion to MOP$17.75 billion (US$2.27 billion to US$2.21 billion), citing a 10% week-on-week decline in GGR over the past week.
According to analysts George Choi and Ryan Cheung, GGR for the first 15 days of September is estimated at MOP$8.5 billion (US$1.06 billion), suggesting a daily run-rate over the seven days from 9 to 15 September of MOP$536 million (US$66.8 million) – 10% lower than earlier in the month.
The decline is due to lower volumes across the board, with VIP volumes said to be down by 8% to 10% month-on-month and mass volumes by 10% to 12%. VIP hold is also estimated to be down.
Such softness could be temporary with the analysts stating they suspect some players had chosen to postpone their Macau trips until the Mid-Autumn Festival running from 15 to 17 September.
“That said, we are conservatively trimming our September 2024 GGR forecast … to reflect the month-to-date trends, implying a daily run-rate of MOP$617 million (US$76.9 million) for the rest of the month,” they wrote.
Citi’s revised September forecast still represents a 19% improvement over September 2023 and back to around 80% of September 2019 levels.
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