Industry and political experts have told Inside Asian Gaming that they expect Thailand’s new Prime Minister, 37-year-old Paetongtarn Shinawatra, to continue pursuing legalized casino gaming but have warned of ongoing resistance from within the coalition government.
Questions have been raised over Thailand’s IR plans after predecessor Srettha Thavisin – a strong supporter of the initiative – was last week removed from office by the Constitutional Court for breaching ethical standards. It was also revealed during the preceding days that the government’s coalition partner Bhumjaithai is opposed to a number of key points contained within draft casino legislation and has questioned whether legal casinos can solve issues of illegal gambling or provide sufficient economic benefit.
However, the nomination by the dominant Pheu Thai party of Paetongtarn – the daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra – as leader suggests they will look to maintain the status quo, experts say.
“Thaksin and his daughter as new PM will continue with the casino plan, as tourism including MICE is a major plank of Pheu Thai’s economic policies,” said William J Jones, Assistant Professor of International Relations at Bangkok’s Mahidol University International College, in comments to Inside Asian Gaming.
“That said, I think there will be resistance within the coalition government coming from the Bhumjaithai party and definitely from [Pheu Thai MP] Gen. Prawit [Wongsuwon], who Thaksin is alleged to have had a break with of late after pushing his brother Gen. Patcharawat (Wongsuwan, former Deputy Prime Minister) out of the Cabinet.
“Thaksin is an old hand at politics and [Bhumjaithai Party leader] Anutin [Charnvirakul] is in for making deals. The distance between the parties can be narrowed if there isn’t strong resistance from other circles.”
An industry expert who asked not to be named offered a similar read on Prime Minister Paetongtarn’s likely course, stating, “I believe that this PM and her government will continue to push to set up an IR and casino industry quickly as the coalition government has been in power for a year with no tangible achievements to date.
“Although there is some opposition over the detail, there is still broad parliamentary consensus over the benefits of legalized casino gaming.
“That said however, trying to rush such an important initiative would be a mistake, as building the legislative and regulatory foundations is an imperative for attracting major international investors, which is reportedly the government’s aim.”
The appointment of Paetongtarn as Prime Minister is seen as an intriguing and somewhat surprising choice, but also as a way back in for Thaksin, who was himself overthrown by a military coup in 2006 and spent 15 years in exile before returning to Thailand last year. He subsequently served a six-month prison term, reduced from an original eight-year sentence due to royal pardon, after being charged with conflict of interest, abuse of power and corruption during his time in power.
Released in February, Thaksin is still viewed as Pheu Thai’s de facto leader and behind the scenes powerbroker, and the appointment of Paetongtarn may therefore serve as an opportunity for the party to progress economic policies that had stalled under Srettha’s leadership.
Pheu Thai could also benefit from the problems its political rivals are facing, particularly the People’s Party, which was rapidly formed earlier this month from the remnants of the progressive Move Forward party – itself dissolved and 11 of its executives barred from politics for 10 years by the Constitutional Court on 7 August.
But unknowns remain.
“[Casino] legislation also has to go through public hearings where the new People’s Party will definitely get their PR machine working,” Jones told IAG.
“I suspect this is the real unknown. The Thai public has previously pushed back against alcohol company Thai Bev listing on the stock market. Whether there is considerable pushback from the public and Buddhist groups on casinos is the real hurdle for political parties to get over.
“Currently, there isn’t much light being shown on this and the public writ largely seems ignorant of the proposed law. If this continues it will certainly make it easier for Pheu Thai to get the legislation across the line.
“However, if the media shine light and begin a public discussion and debate then a wildcard will have been drawn.”
Thailand’s latest political upheaval came in the midst of a two-week public feedback period following release of draft casino legislation earlier in August, which outlines key policy plans for the legislation including governance and operator requirements.
The public feedback period quietly came to a close on Sunday.
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