The recent rollout of smart table game technology and subsequent availability of new side bet opportunities is changing the face of baccarat and may soon force operators to adjust upwards their theoretical hold percentages, according to Las Vegas Sands.
The issue of baccarat hold was raised during the company’s 2Q24 earnings call on Thursday morning (Asia time) after LVS’s Singapore property, Marina Bay Sands, booked a fourth quarter of incredibly high hold, positively impacting Adjusted Property EBITDA to the tune of US$64 million. This followed a US$77 million positive hold impact in Q1, US$71 million impact in 4Q23 and US$34 million impact in 3Q23.
Noting that strong hold appeared to be structural rather than luck driven, LVS Chairman and CEO Robert Goldstein said the company may soon have to revise its theoretical win percentage on baccarat due to the impact of new side bets and how smart tables are allowing game data to be processed. LVS lists its theoretical rolling chip win percentage at 3.30%.
“One thing we realize is that the world is changing in baccarat,” Goldstein said. “Smart tables give us a better way of quantifying what the hold percentage should be, but also we’ve put games on the floor – prop bets or side bets – that the change the hold percentage of baccarat and we are currently debating how high we can take it, because it is understated.
“We’ve been thinking about that quarter to quarter and in the near future we will address that, because clearly something is happening.
“It’s the smart table opportunity coupled with the game changers. Baccarat has been a pretty stable, pretty predictable game for many years – Player/Banker/Tie/Pair – but it’s changing dramatically. We were [in Singapore] a few months ago and were shocked to see how much money was being bet on the prop bets, players betting SG$3,000 on the side bets which drives the per way up.
“We believe that’s in play in Singapore. We’re not ready [to change theoretical] today but we’re coming close to a decision, this year perhaps, to address that very issue because something is in play and it’s not just better fortunes, it’s better mathematics and the ability to assess those mathematics through smart tables.”
LVS President and COO Patrick Dumont said the company, which has been steadily rolling out Angel’s smart table technology across its Singapore and Macau properties, wants more time to “observe empirically” how people are betting before making a final call on changing theoretical win.
However, he also noted that new side bets – Tiger baccarat being an example – were literally changing the game.
“You would argue that our theoretical is higher than [its current level] but we’re going to continue to look at it and we’ll make adjustments as necessary when we think the statistics warrant it,” Dumont said.
“It is a very significant adjustment, but our game mix has changed, the availability of prop bets or high-volume bets are on the floor now in a very different way than they had been previously, both pre-pandemic and even a year ago. The patron uptake is very high and so that is adjusting the way our mix on the floor is being exhibited through gaming win.
“We’re going to continue to take a look at it and we’ll make adjustments when we feel that it’s appropriate.”
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