Investment firm Phillip Capital has maintained its “BUY” rating on Genting Malaysia Bhd, stating this week that the company is seeing positive signs from the United States in both its existing operations and its full casino license prospects in downstate New York.
In a Wednesday note, Phillip Capital described the updated timeline provided by the New York State Gaming Facility Location Board for the issuance of three full casino licenses as “a positive development” that “would serve as a rerating catalyst with a more definite timeline” given that Genting’s slots-only Resorts World New York City is considered a favorite to win one of the licenses on offer.
Under the New York State Gaming Facility Location Board new timeline, applications must be submitted by 27 June 2025 with a final decision expected by 1 December 2025 and licenses awarded by 31 December.
“We had earlier projected an additional RMB250 million to RMB320 million (US$53.5 million to US$68.5 million) EBITDA contribution in 2026, assuming 200 to 250 tables being set up for the first year of operation,” the analysts said.
Phillip Capital is also buoyant on existing property performance, noting that Genting Malaysia’s video gaming machine (VGM) operations expanded New York state market share to 43.3% in Q2 on a 5.5% year-on-year increasing in net win – outpacing overall state growth of 4.3%.
“Overall, we expect an improved performance from the US operations, which made up 18% to 20% of Genting Malaysia’s group revenue and EBITDA in 2023,” it said.
“We continue to advocate investors to accumulate on share price weakness, as Genting Malaysia trades at an undemanding 6.6x 2025 enterprise value/EBITDA.
“Key downside risks to our call include lower-than expected win rates, a hike in gaming taxes, drag from key associates, and value-destructive related-party transactions.”
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