Macau’s gaming revenues will show a slight increase in the September 2024 quarter and garner a more meaningful sequential improvement through Q4, allaying concerns over a seasonally slow Q2 according to Seaport Research Partners.
In a Monday note, Seaport’s Senior Analyst Vitaly Umansky said that while all eyes are now on operator Q2 results ahead of Sands China’s upcoming results release on Thursday morning (Asia time), the key questions moving forward will be “operating costs, player reinvestment, July trends and August outlook, impact of money flow crackdown and the impact it may be having on gaming revenues, slowness of base mass recovery and what expectations may be.”
Noting that Macau will be the driver of share price performance for many companies in the coming months, Umansky said that moderate Q2 estimates are now well know but forecast a “slight increase” in GGR in Q3 on seasonality.
More importantly, Q4 is forecast to have a more meaningful sequential improvement of 5.5% quarter-on-quarter, with the December quarter typically being the strongest quarter seasonally.
According to Umansky, GGR will reach around 83.3% of 4Q19 levels while FY24 GGR will finish 24% higher than in 2023.
Seaport is tipping Melco, Wynn and Galaxy to enjoy market share gains throughout the remainder of 2024 but believes Sands China and its parent Las Vegas Sands to be better long-term picks given the impending completion of The Londoner Macao’s transformation.
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