The amount of gaming spend per visitor to Macau has recovered to around 93% of pre-COVID levels in 2024 and is a key reason behind the steady growth in Macau’s gaming trajectory, according to Fitch Group research division CreditSights.
In a Thursday note, analyst David Bussey said that GGR spend per visitor was tracking at US$841 between January and May, equivalent to 93% of the same period in 2019 and considerably higher than GGR spend of US$805 per visitor in 2023. The GGR spend of visitors throughout all of 2019 had reached US$920.
It is on the back of this rising spend that CreditSights believes Macau will maintain steady growth in the short-term, buoyed by incremental visitation improvement as transport links continue to become more readily available.
While visitation trends to Macau have flattened in recent months compared to the start of the year, the research group pointed to positive sentiment coming out of China such as online visa processing for residents of 20 mainland China cities, an extension to the maximum length of stay for multiple-entry business visas from seven days to 14 days and the provision for multiple trips for tour groups between Hengqin and Macau within a seven-day period.
“We believe these measures will help support additional traffic from mainland China, which is running at 81% of 2019 levels year-to-date (through May),” CreditSights wrote. “We note mainland China makes up ~70% of visitors to Macau.”
The group also outlined its expectation that Macau GGR would exceed the government’s forecast of MOP$216 billion (US$26.8 billion) in 2024, having already reached MOP$114 billion (US$14.2 billion) through June. According to CreditSights, 2024 GGR could reach as high as MOP$234 billion (US$29.1 billion) which would represent a 28% year-on-year increase versus the 18% increase predicted by the government.
“While GGR improvements (relative to 2019) have moderated, we expect to see incremental growth in market wide GGR (relative to 2019 levels) on the back of ongoing increases in visitations and steady spend per visitor,” Bussey said.
Preliminary MGTO figures show that Macau welcomed 16.7 million visitors in the first half of 2024, up 43.6% year-on-year and representing 82.5% of 1H19 levels.
