Macau’s diversification efforts appear to be showing some positive impact, with Macau’s non-gaming sectors seen contributing around 15% of concessionaire revenues in 2024.
According to a note by Seaport Research Partners analyst Vitaly Umansky, Macau GGR should rise to US$28.7 billion this year, up 26.1% year-on-year, while non-gaming is tipped to rise to US$4.9 billion, up 17.7% year-on-year. This would see non-gaming equate to 15% of all revenues, boosted by concessionaire spending on non-gaming initiatives as mandated under their current 10-year concession contracts.
“In 2025, we forecast GGR to rise to US$31.8 billion and non-gaming to rise to US$5.3 billion,” Umansky added, suggesting the contribution of non-gaming will slip slightly to around 14%.
“Property EBITDA for the industry is forecasted to rise 24.8% and 15.5% year-on-year in 2024 and 2025, respectively.”
On the gaming side, Macau’s GGR is tipped to surpass 80% of pre-COVID levels in the third quarter of 2024, and reach 83.3% in Q4, as Asia’s gaming hub picks up momentum during the second half of the year.
This follows expectations of a more modest Q2 result at around 77% of 2019 levels – down by up to 2% quarter-on-quarter primarily due to a subdued month of June. Industry wide EBITDA is also seen declining by around 2% sequentially in Q2, with June described as “typically the worst or second worst month of the year”.
However, the market should enjoy a strong second half of the year, with Q3 GGR recovering to 80.6% and Q4 GGR recovering to 83.3% of 2019 levels. The December quarter is tipped to see GGR rising 5.5% quarter-on-quarter and EBITDA by 6.5% quarter-on-quarter, Umansky said.
“Macau remains a long-term secular growth,” he explained. “We do not see a slowdown and change in propensity to gamble by the core Macau customer base and Macau remains the funnel for servicing gaming demand in Greater China.”
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