China outbound tourism to countries in the Asia-Pacific region is projected to recover to 86% of pre-COVID levels in 2024, although Chinese tourist spending will continue to be restrained, said ratings agency Fitch.
In a Wednesday note, the agency said it expects recovery in APAC tourism will continue in 2024, albeit at a slower pace due to less favourable base effects.
Nevertheless, visitation in APAC should reach 92% of 2019 levels with nominal international tourism receipts exceeding that of 2019 by 6%. China visitation recovery remains slightly slower given its late reopening in January 2023.
“The APAC recovery has lagged that in other regions, where tourism arrivals and revenues have surpassed or recovered closer to pre-pandemic norms,” Fitch said.
“We expect the APAC recovery to be fuelled by robust demand, economic resilience, additional flight capacity, policy efforts to reignite tourism, and depreciated local currencies.”
Fitch analysts also said full APAC tourism recovery should occur in 1H25, although risk factors to this include a slow restoration of international air traffic, elevated airfares and energy prices, and heightened geopolitical tensions.
“A global shock or pronounced economic downturn, especially a more substantial weakening of the Chinese economy than our baseline, could dampen demand for travel and spending, hindering the tourism recovery in China and the region,” the agency said. “In addition, the impact of climate change presents challenges for some APAC economies that depend more on nature-based tourism.”
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