Macau’s mass gaming revenues hit an all-time high in May, with mass market GGR almost back to pre-COVID levels and premium mass soaring well beyond, according to a Monday note from JP Morgan.
The Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) released May’s figures on Saturday, which confirmed a new post-pandemic high of MOP$20.2 billion for the month – up almost 30% year-on-year on a daily run-rate of MOP$651 million (US$80.8 million).
However, JP Morgan said it estimates May also represented a record high mass GGR in the history of Macau, with mass market revenues back to 95% of 2019 and premium mass at 130%. This, said analysts DS Kim, Mufan Shi and Selina Li, was “quite impressive, especially given mounting investor concerns on macro/consumption elsewhere in China.”
VIP volumes held stable in the mid-20% recovery range, they added, although the segment also benefited from strong hold.
Looking ahead, JP Morgan expects June GGR to fall back to around MOP$18 billion (US$2.24 billion) at around MOP$600 million (US$74.5 million) per day, but said the trend still looks promising compared to historical trends. While June is seasonally the weakest month of the year, JP Morgan models 2Q24 GGR at MOP$56.7 billion (US$7.04 billion), “down only -1% quarter-on-quarter versus historical seasonality of -4% quarter-on-quarter, thanks to flattish mass (incl. slot) GGR to beat the seasonality of -4% q/q despite increasingly tougher comps.
“All-in, while 2Q EBITDA could pull-back a bit quarter-on-quarter given higher opex, overall trends seem to track modestly better than expectations so far, suggesting limited risks to consensus earnings.”
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