Macau’s gaming operators have recorded combined gross gaming revenues of MOP$12.5 billion through the first 21 days of April, with the daily run-rate of MOP$595 million per day representing a 5% decline versus March according to estimates by JP Morgan.
However, issuing its regular channel check update on Monday, the investment bank’s analysts DS Kim, Mufan Shi and Selina Li noted that such a decline was in line with seasonality while a run-rate of MOP$600 million per day over the past week suggests revenues have again stabilized.
Mass GGR, they added, continue to track at around 110% of pre-COVID levels and VIP GGR in the mid-20% recovery range.
Looking ahead, Kim, Shi and Li said they expect to see some divergence in the market as Macau’s concessionaires release their 1Q24 financial results in the weeks ahead. While Sands China kicked off earnings season last week with a miss, JP Morgan expects at least some operators to print strong double-digit EBITDA growth – namely MGM, Wynn and SJM (versus declines for Sands, Galaxy and Melco).
“This, in our view, happens as the industry recovery stabilizes at around current levels, which in turn makes the idiosyncratic factors (market shares, opex control, promotions) the key earnings driver for each operator (as opposed to the pace of industry recovery itself),” the analysts wrote.
“We expect diverging earnings revision trends into/post 1Q results, which should create alpha opportunity within the sector.”
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