The anticipated approval by the Thai cabinet of a study recommending the legalization of casino gaming poses a serious threat to the future of Japan’s slow-burning IR industry, potentially stealing not only the interest of players but the industry as a whole, an expert believes.
Joji Kokuryo, Managing Director of Japan-based consultancy Bay City Ventures, told Inside Asian Gaming that reports Thailand could open its first legal casinos as early as 2029 – putting it at least a year ahead of MGM’s IR development in Osaka, due to open in 2030 – should be particularly concerning to a country that has been famously slow in making its own casinos a reality.
“Thai entertainment complexes with casinos, given a headstart, should certainly take market and player attention away from any IR in Japan, especially when it comes to attracting visitors from Southeast Asia and South China,” Kokuryo said.
However, of more immediate concern according to Kokuryo are the recommendations of Thailand’s casino legislation which outline far more attractive terms for operators and investors than those found in Japan.
“Thailand’s proposed framework clearly improves on the more scrutinized aspects of the Japan IR initiative, with longer initial license of 20 years compared to Japan’s 10 years, favorable taxing on GGR at 17% compared to Japan’s 30%, and the scalability of resort sizes and investments tailored to each market, unlike Japan’s one size-fits-all facility requirements,” he said.
“The Japanese government should be very concerned that Thailand and other new Asian markets such as the UAE are taking investor and operator interest away from any further Japan IR bidding rounds.”
Noting that the microscope is now firmly set on Osaka – the one and only location to be granted approval by the central government to develop an IR – Kokuryo added that local officials should now focus all their energies on solving the pollution and liquefication issues at the Yumeshima IR sit to avoid any further delays and, most importantly, to ensure the MGM-Orix joint venture doesn’t exercise its exit option, still valid until September 2026.
Not everyone believes MGM’s Osaka IR faces a timeline threat from Thailand, with Maybank Investment Bank’s Samuel Yin Shao Yang telling IAG the only real advantage Thailand would gain by opening earlier would be recouping its investments faster.
Citing the Singapore experience, Yin said, “Resorts World Sentosa opened three months before Marina Bay Sands but it is MBS that is leading now in terms of market share. It’s all about the product and location.”
