Strong visitation numbers during the current Golden Week holiday period appear to have Macau’s mass gaming revenues on track to hit 100% of pre-COVID levels, according to investment bank JP Morgan.
In a Thursday note, analysts DS Kim, Mufan Shi and Selina Li said this was in-line with earlier estimates albeit without any actual GGR figures to go off. Instead, they pointed to Golden Week visitor arrivals fir the first six days of the eight-day holiday period, which hit 90% of pre-COVID levels on Wednesday (Day 6) versus 84% over the first five days.
Notably, “The pace of mainland [China] visitor recovery ramped up sharply on Day 6, printing 110% of 2019’s Golden Week versus 75% in the first five days,” the analysts wrote.
“A much flatter curve in visitations probably reflects a longer holiday period and the overlap with Mid-Autumn festival (where families and friends typically gather and celebrate) for the first couple of days of Golden Week.
“In our view, this also suggests Golden Week should recover to 85%+ to be in line with our [estimates], with mainland visitation hitting 80% to 85% levels.”
JP Morgan had said as early as July that it expects Macau’s mass gaming revenues to return to pre-COVID levels by October.
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