Macau-wide gaming revenues are likely to recover to 100% of 2019 October Golden Week during the upcoming holiday period, enough to put a “month to forget” for the city’s operators behind them.
The forecast was delivered by investment bank JP Morgan on Monday after channel checks suggested GGR for the first 17 days of September reached MOP$8.1 billion or MOP$476 million per day. This, according to analysts DS Kim, Mufan Shi and Selina Li, implies a run-rate of between MOP$540 million and MOP$550 million per day over the past week compared with MOP$430 million during the first few weeks of the month when extreme weather events severely impacted the industry.
While all eyes will now be on Golden Week, the analysts said they expect both visitation and spending to meet consensus with traffic recovering to 85% of Golden Week 2019 levels and mass GGR back to 100%.
In a separate note, JP Morgan said “most investors will be satisfied if visitation recovery hits 85%+ of pre-COVID levels, and our checks and recent visitation trends suggest there is little downside risk here.”
Macau’s GGR has climbed each and every month for the first eight months of the year to hit post-COVID highs of MOP$16.66 billion (US$2.06 billion) in July and MOP$17.21 billion (US$2.12 billion) in August.
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