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Macau 2022 GGR running under a third of government estimate

Andrew W Scott by Andrew W Scott
Thu 1 Dec 2022 at 13:38
BNU, Bank of China sign new 10-year agreement to issue Macau banknotes
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Sometimes I’m criticized for being verbose, so I’ll keep this analysis succinct.

The Macau government’s estimate for Macau GGR for the 2022 calendar year was MOP$130 billion. Remember that number.

Earlier today, the DICJ announced the November GGR was a paltry MOP$3.0 billion, making Macau’s actual 2022 GGR for the first 11 months a total of MOP$38.7 billion.

Let’s extrapolate that number to a 12-month equivalent run rate: MOP$38.7 billion x 12/11 = MOP$42.2 billion (US$5.3 billion). Given we’re 11 months into the year, that will be a quite accurate estimate of the actual 2022 GGR.

That run rate as a percentage of the original government estimate is 42.2 billion divided by 130 billion which is a mere 32%! That’s just under one third of the original estimate — which itself was only 44% of 2019 (pre-pandemic) GGR.

Meanwhile, the state of Nevada just recorded its 20th month in a row with GGR well north of US$1 billion. Its revenue for the 10 months to October stands at US$12.3 billion, with a 12-month equivalent run rate of 12.3 billion x 12/10 = US$14.8 billion, nearly triple the Macau 2022 GGR run rate. Long gone are the days of Macau being five, six, seven times Las Vegas. These days it’s more like half of Las Vegas, and a third of Nevada as a whole.

And the government’s estimate for Macau GGR for 2023? MOP$130 billion. Does that number sound familiar?

Tags: GGRMacau
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Andrew W Scott

Andrew W Scott

Born in Australia, Andrew is a gaming industry expert and media publisher, commentator and journalist who moved to Hong Kong in 2005 and then Macau in 2009, when he founded O MEDIA, one of Macau’s largest media companies, former and parent company of Inside Asian Gaming (IAG). Both O MEDIA and IAG were merged with US-based gaming media brand CDC Gaming on 1 January 2025, under new corporate parent Complete Media Group (CMG).

Andrew was appointed CEO of Complete Media Group upon the merger. CMG is now the parent of three gaming media brands: Inside Asian Gaming (focusing on land-based gaming in the Asia-Pacific region), CDC Gaming (focusing on land-based gaming in the Americas), and Complete iGaming (focusing on online gaming in the Americas and APAC).

Andrew continues to be Vice Chairman and CEO of IAG and now-sister company O MEDIA.

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