Macau’s daily gross gaming revenue grew 12% above the previous week during the first four days of September, but any meaningful recovery remains unlikely in the near term, according to brokerage Bernstein.
In their weekly GGR update, Bernstein’s Vitaly Umansky and Shirley Yang said GGR from 1 to 4 September reached MOP$352 million (US$43 million) or MOP$88 million (US$11 million) per day. This was up 12% on the previous week and 25% on August’s average daily rate (ADR) but down 88% on September 2019 and 55% on September 2021.
More importantly, the analysts noted that there was little to get excited about on last week’s move to reopen Macau’s borders to foreign visitors from 41 countries.
“Macau indicated a reopening of the border to overseas arrivals as the first step; however, given that non-mainland visitors still need to do 7-day quarantine upon arrival in Macau (and we do not expect this requirement will be lifted in the near future) the practical benefit is essentially nil,” they wrote.
“China travel will continue to be constrained in the near future as a result of the ongoing regional COVID outbreaks in China, which have resulted in lockdowns in Chengdu and several areas of Shenzhen and Dalian, among a host of other cities.
“Until lockdowns ease and people have confidence to travel (and restrictions are reduced), visitation into Macau will remain tepid. The pace of GGR recovery in September and October is still uncertain and largely dependent on whether China can quickly contain the regional COVID outbreaks and resume travel.”
Bernstein is predicting September GGR will be down 83% on September 2019 levels, albeit with ADR up 70% on August. The DICJ recently reported GGR of MOP$2.19 billion (US$271 million) in August – the second lowest monthly total of 2022 after July.
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