Macau’s gross gaming revenue doubled week-on-week in the seven days from 16 to 22 May, bouncing back from the lowest weekly revenue since October 2020 in the wake of the Labor Day holiday weekend.
In a Monday note, brokerage Bernstein pointed to “demand recovery after post-holiday seasonality/slowdown,” with GGR for the week estimated at around MOP$100 million per day – up from MOP$50 million per day in the seven days prior.
However, the recovery is likely to be short-lived due to ongoing travel impediments and recent reports that mainland China is actively applying visa controls on frequent gamblers.
According to Bernstein’s Vitaly Umansky, Louis Li and Shirley Yang, month-to-date GGR through 22 May is MOP$2.8 billion (US$346 million) with average daily GGR of MOP$127 million (US$16 million) – down 85% on May 2019 and 62% down on May 2021 but 43% higher than April 2022. VIP volume is estimated to be 45% higher than April while daily mass GGR is up 40% month-on-month.
“China’s reported COVID cases have now come down to ~3% of the peak level (in mid-April), at the cost of prolonged lockdown in Shanghai as well as escalated COVID measures in Beijing and many other cities, and the Chinese government has reiterated strict COVID border policy and restrictions on non-essential travel,” the analysts said.
“The negative outlook has led to Macau government taking initiatives to encourage casino operators to attract foreign customers (through potential GGR tax cut); and beginning May 27, to firstly allow Portuguese non-resident visitors to enter Macau (though 14-day quarantine still mandatory), raising some hopes that Macau may eventually reopen travel to international visitors.”
Nevertheless, “Due to continuous lockdown and travel restrictions from China, we expect the near-term visitation to be constrained as Macau reiterated alignment with China’s ‘zero-COVID’ policy.”
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