The decision by Macau’s Novel Coronavirus Response and Coordination Centre to ease border restrictions with Guangdong province by extending the validity period of negative COVID-19 test results from 48 to 72 hours should see gross gaming revenues (GGR) improve in May.
However, GGR will still remain weak in relative terms and the May Labour Day holiday weekend more subdued than had been hoped prior to the COVID-19 outbreaks currently gripping parts of mainland China, according to brokerage Bernstein.
Outlining the findings of their weekly Macau channel checks, Bernstein analysts Vitaly Umansky and Louis Li said Monday that daily GGR had grown by 11% week-on-week to MOP$83 million (US$10.3 million) in the six days from 19 to 24 April, albeit coming off the SAR’s worst week since China resumed IVS travel into Macau in September 2020.
With the further easing of border restrictions, coming just five days after the validity period of negative tests was increased from 24 to 48 hours, Umansky and Li said they expect GGR to improve month-to-month in May, with all areas in Guangdong Province now at “low risk” as per China’s CDC list.
“However, the May long weekend holiday will not be as good as hoped for prior to the outbreaks,” they wrote.
“The consecutive relaxations are positive signals showing the government’s intention to start improving visitation, however much will depend on what happens in China with COVID outbreaks, lockdown measures and travel constraints.”
Ahead of the DICJ publishing April GGR figures this coming Sunday 1 May, Bernstein estimates month-to-date GGR through 24 April at MOP$2.1 billion (US$260 million) or MOP$88 million (US$11 million) per day. This represents an 89% decline versus April 2019 and is 69% lower than April 2021.
