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Philippines GGR to reach 85% of pre-COVID levels by 4Q22: Morgan Stanley

Ben Blaschke by Ben Blaschke
Fri 22 Apr 2022 at 06:21
Manila to drop all capacity restrictions from 1 March

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Manila’s Entertainment City resorts are tipped to reach 85% of pre-COVID-19 gross gaming revenues (GGR) by the fourth quarter of 2022, aided by the reopening of the Philippines’ international borders, according to investment bank Morgan Stanley.

In a note previewing financial results for the March quarter, Morgan Stanley analysts Gareth Leung and Praveen Choudhary said they expect Q1 GGR of Manila’s integrated resorts – City of Dreams Manila, Okada Manila, Resorts World Manila and Solaire Resort & Casino – to grow by 15% quarter-on-quarter to Php26.8 billion (US$511 million), driven by stronger local demand recovery in mass and slot revenue. This represents 68% of 2019 GGR levels.

But looking further ahead, they added that industry GGR “could reach 85% of pre-COVID levels by 4Q22, enabled by ASEAN travel reopening in 2Q22 and eased COVID control measures as of March 2022.

“Pent-up demand and election-induced consumption could provide upside to our estimates,” the analysts said.

By comparison, Morgan Stanley estimates that GGR from PAGCOR and other licenced casinos will reach only 40% of 2019 levels in Q1 at Php5.1 billion (US$97 million), improving to 71% of 2019 levels by Q4 at Php9.7 billion (US$185 million).

Industry-wide GGR would reach 82% of 2019 levels by Q4 at Php46.1 billion (US$878 million).

Noting that Okada Manila was the first of Manila’s IR operators to report its 1Q22 results last week, which saw its EBITDA fall 20% quarter-on-quarter, Morgan Stanley believes Okada will have lost market share for the quarter from 30% to 25%.

Conversely, it expects Solaire operator Bloomberry Resorts Corp to remain a market share leader with estimated EBITDA of Php2.3 billion (US$44 million). This would represent a 15% quarter-on-quarter improvement and push EBITDA up to 51% of 2019 levels.

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Tags: 2022covid-19Entertainment CityGGRgross gaming revenueManilaOkada ManilaPhilippinesSolaire Resort
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Ben Blaschke

Ben Blaschke

A former sports journalist in Sydney, Australia, Ben has been Managing Editor of Inside Asian Gaming since early 2016. He played a leading role in developing and launching IAG Breakfast Briefing in April 2017 and oversees as well as being a key contributor to all of IAG’s editorial pursuits.

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