Macau’s average daily gross gaming revenue continued to fall over the past week, reaching its lowest level since the start of the year when a COVID-19 outbreak in Zhuhai saw travel between the neighboring cities all but halted.
According to brokerage Bernstein’s weekly channel checks, daily GGR in the week from 7 to 13 March fell 37% on the previous week to MOP$114 million, impacted by the spread of Omicron across parts of mainland China. The more than 3,000 cases recorded on Saturday was the mainland’s highest daily figure since the early days of the pandemic in January 2020.
In a Monday note, Bernstein analyst Vitaly Umansky warned that Macau would likely face further headwinds from this latest outbreak on the mainland over the coming weeks, with daily visitation numbers for the first 13 days of March already down 31% on February and 29% on January.
“Concerns over potential mass outbreak in China will lead to tightened travel policy and limit visitation to Macau in the near-term,” he said. “A COVID outbreak in Zhuhai and/or Macau could force the border to close (or severely restrict passage) as well.”
Month to date, Macau’s GGR is estimated at MOP$1.9 billion (US$236 million) with an average daily rate of MOP$146 million (US$18 million) – down 82% compared to March 2019 and 45% lower than March 2021.
Umansky said this latest outbreak in mainland China will test Beijing’s resolve when it comes to its zero-COVID policy.
“China has continued with its firm zero-COVID policy across every mainland province, but the current outbreak may lead to an eventual re-evaluation of the policy,” he said.
The brokerage has lowered its GGR estimates for March, which is now expected to decline by around 86% compared with March 2019.
“April will most certainly see significantly lower GGR than was initially expected (as is likely May),” Umansky added.
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