Macau’s casino operators saw “better than expected” gross gaming revenues during the Chinese New Year holiday period, up more than 60% over CNY 2021 due to strong mass volume and high VIP hold.
According to Bernstein analyst Vitaly Umansky, channel checks show an average daily rate (ADR) of MOP$333 million (US$41.5 million) during the first six days of Golden Week from 1 to 6 February – 63% higher than the ADR through January 2022 and 28% higher than February 2021. It was, however, still 63% lower than February 2019.
Month to date GGR is estimated at around MOP$2 billion (US$249 million) with VIP hold up over 75% and mass GGR up by between 50% and 55% when compared with the January 2022 average.
The improvement comes despite ongoing travel impediments related to a recent COVID-19 outbreak in neighboring Zhuhai, which has resulted in a shorter than usual 48-hour validity period for visitors to acquire a negative test result. Efforts to reopen the border with Hong Kong have also been delayed due to another outbreak there.
Nevertheless, JP Morgan’s DS Kim, Livy Lyu and Amanda Cheng said the ADR suggests the average spend of visitors this CNY has risen by up to 6x, possibly due to “a lack of package/group travelers (which are typically very low-end) and day trippers; longer length of stay per visit, given ample availability of rooms and cheap rates during the holiday; and stronger recovery at the premium mass segment.”
This they say “is worth flagging as it proves in a way that the in-house premium/high-end business was very much intact despite the junket fall-out – no negative spill-over was seen at premium mass or direct VIPs.”
Analysts estimate February GGR to come in around 29% higher than January, down 68% versus February 2019, representing a slight increase on prior estimates.
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