Gaming analysts are predicting a strong GGR recovery for Macau’s gaming operators in November, but ongoing COVID-19 outbreaks across mainland China are keeping them cautious on the sector.
Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau on Monday reported GGR of MOP$4.37 billion (US$544 million) in October, the lowest monthly revenue figure since September 2020.
The suppressed gaming revenue was the result of border restrictions between Macau and Zhuhai for the first 19 days of the month, with Zhuhai having implemented a mandatory 14-day quarantine measure on all arrivals from Macau due to a small outbreak of COVID-19 in the SAR in late September.
According to Bernstein analysts Vitaly Umansky, Louis Li and Kelsey Zhu, the first week post-border reopening (20-27 October) was promising with average daily visitation and departures of 47,000 being 9% higher than the September average and 75% higher than the August average.
The analysts are estimating GGR in November to be down by more than 60% versus November 2019, suggesting revenue of between MOP$7 billion (US$873 million) and MOP$8 billion (US$998 million).
“However, due to the new wave of COVID outbreaks in China, Macau has now imposed quarantine requirements on 21 cities/districts from 10 Chinese provinces,” they note.
“Six new cities/districts were added over the past week – something to watch.”
Morgan Stanley’s Praveen Choudhary and Gareth Leung are tipping November GGR to increase 57% over October’s figure to MOP$6.9 billion (US$861 million) but add, “The recent COVID spike in the Mainland could pose risks if cases spread into Guangdong.”
JP Morgan’s DS Kim, Amanda Cheng and Livy Lyu advise staying cautious on the sector into 2022, with no significant easing of border policies around the region expected until after the Beijing Winter Olympics from 4 to 20 February.
Another 54 COVID-19 cases were reported across mainland China on Monday.
