Gaming analysts have revealed modest expectations for Macau’s gaming operators in the upcoming October Golden Week, with a lower quality customer tipped to negatively impact the VIP and premium mass segments.
In its weekly channel check published late Monday, brokerage Sanford C Bernstein warned that the trend for Golden Week, running from 1 to 7 October, is “not looking optimistic.”
“While hotel bookings are solid, we expect the quality of the customers will be lower (i.e. lower spend per head) this year,” said analysts Vitaly Umansky, Eunice Lee and Kelsey Zhu.
“Room comps will be high during the period, but likely go to an average lower spend customer than in 2018. Consequently, higher end play will likely remain tepid during Golden Week and during the whole of October.”
The prediction is in line with a difficult period for Macau’s operators who are feeling the squeeze from the US-China trade war, recent negative publicity surrounding junkets and the ongoing Hong Kong protests. Those headwinds have seen analysts revise down their forecasts for the current month of September, with Bernstein reducing its September estimate from slight growth to flattish and JP Morgan tipping year-on-year growth of 1% to 2% despite “very easy comps.”
“September is set to be another month to forget for Macau, following two months of GGR misses,” said JP Morgan’s DS Kim on Monday.
“All eyes will be on October Golden Week trends, for which we’ll get some color around 7 to 8 October.”
Macau’s gross gaming revenue fell 3.5% in July to MOP$24.45 billion and 8.6% in August to MOP$24.26 billion, missing estimates by some margin in both months.
