The re-tendering process for Macau casino licenses is likely to be delayed until the mid-2020s and the six concession holders granted extensions “well beyond” their current 2020 and 2022 expiration dates if the licensing process currently underway for Macau’s public bus concessions is anything to go by.
So says Union Gaming’s Macau-based analyst Grant Govertsen, who cites ongoing delays, extensions and a lack of transparency as “the best example of how gaming concessions will be handled.”
In a Wednesday note, Govertsen points to the fact that the government is still negotiating with Macau’s three public bus concessions less than two weeks before they expire on 31 July – with no indication of the new rules of engagement or who the players will be – as a sign of what the gaming industry can expect.
“This reinforces our view on the gaming concessions,” he states. “Ultimately, we expect SJM and MGM to be extended (from their 2020 expiration date) until June 2022. At the same time, we do not expect any material progress to be made on how gaming concessions are handled until the next administration takes office (effectively January 2020), at which point we would expect a multi-year study to take place (potentially taking a wait-and-see approach to Japan operations) and thus necessitating concession extensions for all six perhaps well beyond 2022.
“Finally, and based on the significant amount of on-the-ground jockeying for position already occurring by various service provider casino operators (and others), we think it is at least a 50:50 proposition that there will be a seventh (or eighth) concession added.
“In a nutshell, the likelihood of the process dragging on until the middle of the next decade gives the Macau Big 6 some breathing room and pushes out concession risk further than currently baked into shares.”
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