A Japanese lawmaker has warned that a proposed law requiring IR operators to renew their gaming licenses every three years would deter major investment due to financial insecurity and a lack of stability.
Independent MP Mito Kakizawa, a member of the House of Representatives and former member of The Party of Hope, told Inside Asian Gaming in a one-on-one interview at last week’s Japan Gaming Congress that the renewal period was too short and placed an unfair burden on operators.
In particular he labeled a stipulation of the IR Implementation Bill currently awaiting passage through the Diet that would require operators to renew their gaming license every three years as impractical.
“This could hurt investment in IRs from operators because of the lack of certainty it presents,” Kakizawa said.
“If you look at how long it takes to build an integrated resort of the size we are talking about, then under this law the operator’s license will have to be renewed before they have even had time to finish and open their IR. How can operators invest the money being discussed with so much uncertainty?”
Kakizawa’s concerns are echoed by analysts with Morgan Stanley’s Praveen Choudhary – who was at Japan Gaming Congress – writing in a Monday note that financing projects “could be difficult and expensive” given the complications involved with license renewals.
There also remains some disparity between the three-year license renewal period for operators and the 10 year period for locations.
“The current proposal is to have the effective period for the certification of an IR development plan be 10 years, and it would need to be renewed every five years, for which the approval of prefectural parliament and consent of the municipality would be required,” Choudhary said. “On top of this, IR licenses will be renewed every three years.”
While members of the LDP and its coalition partner remain confident of passing the IR Implementation Bill before the current Diet session ends on 20 June, Choudhary added that “we’re concerned about what comes after. New regulations could inhibit large-scale capex and opening of integrated resorts looks far away.”
That final point mirrors another concern of Kakizawa, who suggested it is unlikely an IR could realistically be opened before 2029. That timeline was rejected by the IR leader of the LDP’s coalition partner Komeito, Kiyohiko Toyama, who mentioned 2026 as a more likely scenario. However, both dates are considerably further away than the “early 2020s” date flagged by LDP officials.
According to Choudhary, “Despite the faster than expected move on these bills in the current diet session, the actual timeline for opening IRs is notably late. We now think that the first IR will not be ready till 2025.”
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