More visitors came to Macau during the annual Golden Week holiday than ever before, but they didn’t leave nearly as much of their money in casino drop boxes as they have in the past.
Government data show total visitation was up 6% year on year to 901,000 during the 1st-6th October holiday, while gaming revenue from roughly the same period may have fallen by 33%, according to a Wells Fargo estimate cited by English-language Macau Business Daily. Sterne Agee anticipated a 30% decline, the newspaper said.
The fall-off, reflecting four straight months of unfavorable year-on-year comparisons, the worst to date in September (minus-11.7%), was driven by ongoing steep declines in VIP play out of China and softer growth in high-limit cash play. Both are being impacted by an intense crackdown on corruption by the central government, coupled with slowing economic growth on the mainland, the tightening of certain visa rules and greater scrutiny of cash transactions in Macau that may violate Chinese currency controls.
Student protests in Hong Kong may also have contributed. “We believe Hong Kong’s Occupy Central protests negatively impacted quality of play early in October,” Sterne Agee said. “Many mainlanders delayed or cancelled trips to Hong Kong in the wake of last week’s protests. Mainlanders often travel to Macau during their visit or holiday in Hong Kong.”
The firm estimates daily average gaming revenue for the week at MOP1.2 billion-1.3 billion (US$150 million), versus last year’s MOP1.8 billion.
Analysts, in the meantime, continue to revise their October projections downward, some by as much 23%, or around double September’s decline.
