By Kate O’Keeffe,
Dow Jones Newswires
MARKET TALK: Macau October Gambling Revenue May Be Record -Citi
0944 GMT [Dow Jones] Macau table gambling revenue first 17 days of October at MOP11.6 billion, aided by Golden Week holiday which saw MOP9 billion revenue first ten days of month, writes Citigroup analyst Anil Daswani, citing sources. Figures exclude slot revenue, which he tips will hit MOP700 million for full month. “As expected, (gross gambling revenue) growth has moderated since the holiday to more normal levels…our sense is that full October GGR will at least amount to around MOP17.5 billion, +39% on-year.” Figure would set new record high vs May 2010’s MOP17.1 billion. Market share winners thus far are SJM (0880.HK) with 33%, Sands China (1928.HK) with 20%, Wynn Macau (1128.HK) at 13%, he writes; Galaxy (0027.HK), Melco Crown (MPEL) lost ground vs September with 9%, 15% respective piece of pie currently; MGM’s 10% market share roughly flat vs last full month. (kathryn.okeeffe@dowjones.com)
MARKET TALK: Macau Plays Could See Profit Taking On 3Q -Nomura
0258 GMT [Dow Jones] Nomura analyst Charlene Liu expects generally flat to low single-digit on-quarter growth for most Macau casino operators’ 3Q EBITDA, but she tips Wynn Macau (1128.HK) EBITDA to fall 8% given likely more normalized win rate, slight drop in VIP market share. Also tips Melco Crown (MPEL) EBITDA likely +42%, partly due to low base. “Weexpect some profit-taking into 3Q results as last month’s rally could have partly priced in the good results and strong October.” Adds, any disappointment in November, December could pressure the sector. But doesn’t recommend shorting Macau plays before end-October as 5-weekend month may generate record MOP19 billion in gambling revenue, could cause short-term share price jumps. Companies expected to report 3Q results starting week of Oct. 25. (kathryn.okeeffe@dowjones.com)
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