Macau gambling revenue could fall by 20 percent in 2009 according to figures quoted by the Centre for Macau Studies at the University of Macau.
Before anyone gets too excited, it’s worth bearing in mind that nobody really knows what will happen. Certainly no commentator in Macau predicted that gross gaming revenues would rise by 50 percent in the first seven months of 2008.
What we do know is that in the third quarter Macau’s gross gaming revenue fell by 10 percent compared with the second quarter. This was on the back of external pressures including China’s visa restrictions. A quarterly fall in growth is still growth when compared across the whole of 2008. However if that 10 percent quarterly fall in growth was compounded on an annual basis, and projected into next year, it would certainly be enough to tip the gaming economy into active recession.
Common sense suggests that with a worldwide economic slow down and visa restrictions by Mainland China, the very least Macau can expect in 2009 is a dramatic reduction in revenue growth.
